Monday July 3 Daily Market Primer
I took a break from publishing my daily financial news summary to my blog since so few people read it : ( , but, it's baaaack.....
- Stocks up
- Nike jumps
- PMI’s positive
- Tesla ships
Stocks
moved up on Friday,
lead by industrials and consumer discretionary. Nike jumped 10% on
better earnings, guidance, and a recent announcement to start distributing on
Amazon for the first time. Oil is rebounding, with WTI over $46
and Brent at almost $50 on lower US production. Markets are mostly up on
Monday, and S&P futures are positive. The market will close at 1:00pm
Eastern today and the bond market will close at 2:00pm.
|
LAST
|
CHANGE
|
% CHANGE
|
|
|
21,349.63
|
62.60
|
0.29%
|
|
|
6,140.42
|
-3.93
|
-0.06%
|
|
|
2,423.41
|
3.71
|
0.15%
|
|
|
1,415.36
|
-0.84
|
-0.06%
|
|
|
2,776.13
|
6.74
|
0.24%
|
|
|
Nikkei
225
|
20,055.80
|
22.37
|
0.11%
|
|
UK:
FTSE 100
|
7,345.99
|
33.27
|
0.45%
|
|
CBOE
Volatility
|
10.70
|
-0.74
|
-6.47%
|
|
Australia:
S&P/ASX 200
|
5,684.50
|
-37.00
|
-0.65%
|
|
3,195.91
|
3.48
|
0.11%
|
|
|
Hong
Kong: Hang Seng
|
25,784.17
|
19.59
|
0.08%
|
|
Europe
Dow
|
1,785.53
|
17.03
|
0.97%
|
|
India:
S&P BSE Sensex
|
31,221.62
|
300.01
|
0.96%
|
|
France:
CAC 40
|
5,176.17
|
55.49
|
1.08%
|
|
Germany:
DAX
|
12,416.57
|
91.45
|
0.74%
|
|
Italy:
FTSE MIB
|
20,942.82
|
358.59
|
1.74%
|
|
1.024
|
-0/32
|
||
|
1.402
|
-1/32
|
||
|
1.893
|
-1/32
|
||
|
2.307
|
-1/32
|
||
|
2.837
|
-1/32
|
||
|
-0.602
|
0/32
|
||
|
0.462
|
2/32
|
||
|
46.33
|
0.29
|
0.63%
|
|
|
49.03
|
0.26
|
0.53%
|
|
|
3.011
|
-0.024
|
-0.79%
|
|
|
374.58
|
2.2
|
0.59%
|
|
|
2430.75
|
9.75
|
0.40%
|
PMI’s
are out in China and Europe, and they look positive. US PMI and ISM
numbers will be released later today. Japanese PM Shinzo Abe lost ground
in the Tokyo assembly election on Sunday. Tesla announced that they
will start shipping Model 3’s on July 28, somewhat of a surprise
since the company is famous for product delays.
Here’s
the news:
PMI day
Global
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Day kicked off in China overnight,
where the Caixin Media and Markit Economics gauge rose to 50.4 in June,
showing a return to expansion after contracting in May. Euro-area
manufacturing expanded at the strongest pace in over six years with IHS
Markit's PMI climbing to 57.4,
as data for Greece showed an expansion for the first time since last August. In
the U.K. there were signs that uncertainty is hitting demand, as the
reading fell more than expected to a three-month low of
54.3, down from 56.3 in May. Markit's U.S. manufacturing data is due at
9:45 a.m. Eastern Time.
Qatari console
Qatar
is set to deliver its official response to the
13 demands made by the Saudi-led coalition of Gulf states which have cut
diplomatic and transport links with the country, even as the U.S. and Kuwait
step up diplomatic efforts to resolve the month-long crisis. Qatari
Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who said on Sunday
that his country is ready to face the consequences
of not acceding to the demands, has landed in Kuwait to deliver his
government's answer, according to Doha-based Al Jazeera. Doha's QE Index
dropped as much as 4 percent yesterday,
in the first trading session after a week-long holiday.
Oil rise
A
barrel of West Texas Intermediate for August delivery was trading at $46.14
as of 5:33 a.m. after U.S. production showed signs of slowing,
with the Baker Hughes Inc. rig count dropping for the first time in 24
weeks on Friday. Production in Libya, which is exempt from the OPEC-led output
deal, surpassed one million barrels a day
for the first time since June 2013, according to a person with direct knowledge
of the matter. Oil short-sellers increased their bets on lower crude
prices to the highest level since August
in the week ended June 27, but the bearish position increased at a much slower
pace than previously, showing that a change in positioning may be in the
cards.
Markets mixed
Overnight,
the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.2 percent,
with Japan's Topix index climbing 0.2 percent despite Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling party winning its lowest-ever tally of seats
in an election for Tokyo's assembly -- a result which could hurt his
chances in next year's national election. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.7 percent higher
by 5:45 a.m., with energy stocks buoyed by oil prices leading the
gains. S&P 500 futures were also rising.
Coming up...
June's
ISM manufacturing for the U.S. is due at 10:00 a.m. We get vehicle-sales
data today, with the total expected to be 16.5 million, continuing the
year-on-year declines that have been the trend for 2017. With the holiday
tomorrow in the U.S., markets are closing early. Stock will finish trading at 1
p.m., with bonds markets closing at 2 p.m.
The
first half is over. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained 15.33% in the first half of
2017, compared with the S&P 500's 7.48% advance.
China's
manufacturing bounces back. Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 50.4, up
from May's reading of 49.6, which was a one-year low.
Japanese
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suffers a big blow. Abe's Liberal Democratic
Party won just 23 of 127 seats in Sunday's Tokyo assembly election, The Strait
Times reports.
Saudi
Arabia and its allies extend Qatar's deadline by 48 hours. Saudi Arabia, the United
Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt said Qatar had until midnight Tuesday to
comply with their list of 13 demands to lift a de facto blockade, AFP says.
Bullish
dollar bets hit their lowest level in a year. "Leveraged funds remained
net USD sellers, reducing their net USD longs by $US2 billion to $US4.7
billion, the lowest since June 2016," said Irene Cheung and Rini Sen,
strategists at ANZ Bank, citing US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data
released Friday.
The
10-year is testing Jeff Gundlach's 'critical level.' The US 10-year yield is up
by 1 basis point at 2.31%, its highest since the middle of May. On Friday,
Gundlach tweeted he was watching 2.32% closely.
Elon
Musk announces the delivery date for the Tesla Model 3. Tesla is on track to
deliver 30 Model 3 vehicles on July 28, according to a tweet from CEO Elon
Musk.
Dropbox
is reportedly looking for IPO underwriters. An initial public offering
could come later this year.
Economic
data flows. Markit US Manufacturing PMI will be released at 9:45 a.m. ET
before ISM manufacturing and construction spending cross the wires at 10 a.m.
ET. US auto sales will be announced throughout the day.
US
markets to close early. In observance of Independence Day,
US equity markets will close at 1 p.m. ET, and the Treasury market will finish
at 2 p.m. ET. Markets will be closed Tuesday and reopen Wednesday.
The Message From Home
Many Republican senators back home on recess this week are hearing from influential critics of their health-law effort: GOP governors urging them to push back on the legislation because it would cap the federal government’s share of Medicaid costs, in all cutting $772 billion from the program over a decade. Most vocal are governors of states that expanded Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell risked the pressure, perhaps unavoidably, when he delayed a vote on the bill until after lawmakers return to Washington next week. Republican leaders must flip seven of the nine GOP senators who have publicly stated their opposition—a challenge compounded by the recess.
Many Republican senators back home on recess this week are hearing from influential critics of their health-law effort: GOP governors urging them to push back on the legislation because it would cap the federal government’s share of Medicaid costs, in all cutting $772 billion from the program over a decade. Most vocal are governors of states that expanded Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell risked the pressure, perhaps unavoidably, when he delayed a vote on the bill until after lawmakers return to Washington next week. Republican leaders must flip seven of the nine GOP senators who have publicly stated their opposition—a challenge compounded by the recess.
Dollar Doldrums
The dollar lost 1% last week, closing its worst two-quarter stretch since 2011. Down 5.6% in the first half as investors grew more confident that economic recoveries elsewhere are gaining on or surpassing growth in the U.S., the dollar has come under fresh pressure since central-bank officials in Europe and Canada last week strongly signaled they could soon begin winding down measures meant to spur economic growth. Viewing these statements as a sign of strength and a possible portent of higher interest rates in those countries, investors rushed to buy the currencies, and the euro soared to its highest level against the dollar in more than a year. As recently as six months ago, few expected such a turnabout.
The dollar lost 1% last week, closing its worst two-quarter stretch since 2011. Down 5.6% in the first half as investors grew more confident that economic recoveries elsewhere are gaining on or surpassing growth in the U.S., the dollar has come under fresh pressure since central-bank officials in Europe and Canada last week strongly signaled they could soon begin winding down measures meant to spur economic growth. Viewing these statements as a sign of strength and a possible portent of higher interest rates in those countries, investors rushed to buy the currencies, and the euro soared to its highest level against the dollar in more than a year. As recently as six months ago, few expected such a turnabout.
Engineering Consensus
The leader declaring an end to the Islamic State caliphate is someone few would have imagined in the position. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, seen as the favorite of none but acceptable to all, managed to turn that tepid sentiment into a defining strength. Over nearly three years in office, the 65-year-old former electrical engineer has narrowed gaps between Iraq’s warring Shiite and Sunni politicians. He balanced competing interests among geopolitical rivals Iran and the U.S., and spearheaded an overhaul of Iraqi security forces, who had fled advancing Islamic State fighters. Now, Iraq is close to retaking the Islamic State stronghold of Mosul. We look at how Mr. Abadi sought to keep everyone on the same side.
The leader declaring an end to the Islamic State caliphate is someone few would have imagined in the position. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, seen as the favorite of none but acceptable to all, managed to turn that tepid sentiment into a defining strength. Over nearly three years in office, the 65-year-old former electrical engineer has narrowed gaps between Iraq’s warring Shiite and Sunni politicians. He balanced competing interests among geopolitical rivals Iran and the U.S., and spearheaded an overhaul of Iraqi security forces, who had fled advancing Islamic State fighters. Now, Iraq is close to retaking the Islamic State stronghold of Mosul. We look at how Mr. Abadi sought to keep everyone on the same side.
Goldman
said to review its commodities business
after worst start in a decade.
The
rally in the riskiest corporate bonds is showing signs of faltering.
Tesla
CEO Musk realizes 15-year quest with Model 3.
How
retailers can fight back against Amazon.
Burger
costs hit a three-year low
ahead of Independence Day.
Is
it unethical for me not to tell my employer I've automated my job?
It's
been a decade since the bursting of the housing bubble and its impact continues to limp through
the courts -- and wider markets. Late on Friday, I reported that Wells Fargo
had surprised investors last week by withholding more than $90 million owed to
buyers of mortgage-backed bonds created before the crisis, to help cover its
legal costs. The bank is trustee for the bonds (it's basically charged with
enforcing the terms of the debt and making payouts to investors) and is itself
being sued by a group of bond investors over faulty loans that got bundled up
into debt. Some 20 deals are said to be affected directly, but the move has
already sent analysts scrambling to figure out just how much of the market
could be exposed to a similar risk, with one estimate from Morgan Stanley
putting the total deal numbers from as little as 400 to as many as 2,000. While
a legal squabble in the shriveled market for old mortgage bonds might seem like
small potatoes, it speaks to a wider relic of the crisis. Almost a decade since
2008 and the U.S. seems no closer to inspiring investor confidence in, or
reviving, the market for privately-backed home loans -- those made without an
implicit government guarantee from entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The latest drama doesn't seem likely to help much on that front.
Source:
Bloomberg, BI, WSJ, CFAI Fin. Newsbrief
posted by Rich Barnett @ 6:42 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home