Thursday September 15 Daily Market Primer
It was a quick return to the dog days of summer
yesterday as US stocks barely budged after a bout of last Friday—Tuesday
volatility. There was some action during the day however, as the Dow was
up about 100 points in the morning and ended up down 32. US jobless
claims came out this morning at 260K, in line with the expected number of 265K
but up a little from last week’s 259K. While we wait to see if the
calm lasts until the Fed meeting next week, volatility seems has returned to
the currency markets (Currency markets see volatility resurgence,
below.) S&P500 futures are pointing to a barely positive opening, and
I’m pressing send before they flip.
|
LAST
|
CHANGE
|
% CHG
|
|
|
18034.77
|
-31.98
|
-0.18%
|
|
|
5173.77
|
18.52
|
0.36%
|
|
|
2125.77
|
-1.25
|
-0.06%
|
|
|
1211.59
|
-0.73
|
-0.06%
|
|
|
2403.04
|
-1.59
|
-0.07%
|
|
|
16405.01
|
-209.23
|
-1.26%
|
|
|
339.05
|
0.63
|
0.19%
|
|
|
6708.96
|
35.65
|
0.53%
|
|
|
339.04
|
0.62
|
0.18%
|
|
|
17.29
|
-0.85
|
-4.69%
|
|
|
3002.85
|
-20.66
|
-0.68%
|
|
|
23335.59
|
144.95
|
0.63%
|
|
|
28412.89
|
40.66
|
0.14%
|
|
|
2805.52
|
-3.83
|
-0.14%
|
|
|
4361.35
|
-8.91
|
-0.20%
|
|
|
10372.44
|
-5.96
|
-0.06%
|
|
|
16452.76
|
-87.14
|
-0.53%
|
|
|
8702.2
|
-0.2
|
0.00%
|
|
|
0.31
|
-1/32
|
||
|
0.746
|
Jan-32
|
||
|
1.195
|
2/32
|
||
|
1.703
|
-1/32
|
||
|
2.47
|
-12/32
|
||
|
-0.646
|
0/32
|
||
|
0.043
|
-6/32
|
||
|
43.73
|
0.15
|
0.34%
|
|
|
46.12
|
0.27
|
0.59%
|
|
|
2.961
|
-0.008
|
-0.27%
|
|
|
345.97
|
1.09
|
0.32%
|
|
|
2116.25
|
3
|
0.14%
|
The
Bank of England took no action this morning and left the base rate at .25% as
widely expected. Cash strapped residential solar leader SolarCity
managed to raise $305 million this week in a cash equity deal ahead of its
planned merger with Tesla. This is a complicated transaction based on
future electricity production, but basically George Soros Quantum Funds
threw Elon Musk’s company a lifeline http://bit.ly/SCTYCash.
It’s the second big equity raise this year for SolarCity.
And, Apple stock is on a tear, up 3.5% yesterday on a flat market day, and
another 1+% in pre-market trading today, on better than expected iPhone 7
pre-sales. In fact, they are already out of phones.
Here’s
the news:
Bank of England
The Bank of England is due to make its latest monetary policy announcement at 7:00 a.m. ET
this morning. Every economist surveyed by Bloomberg predicts no change in
policy following last month's stronger-than-expected reaction to the
Brexit vote. With data, including today's retail sales figures, continuing to
show resilience there seems to be little need for further easing at the moment.
The pound, which has acted as something of a safety valve for the British economy since
the referendum, was holding steady at $1.3235 at 6:05 a.m. ET.
Risky bets
It is eight years today since Lehman
Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed under the weight of losses incurred due
to the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some signs that the lessons learned
in the crisis that followed the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history are
being forgotten as the search yield encourages some funds load up on risk.
Oil holds below $44
A barrel of West Texas Intermediate for October delivery was trading at $43.83 at 6:07 a.m. ET after the
commodity lost 5.9 percent in the previous two sessions. Concerns over the oil
glut are increasing as Nigeria and Libya are set to add hundreds of thousands of barrels to global
supply as production restarts following conflict-related shutdowns. Jeff
Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., sees oil trading between $45 and $50 for the next 12
months.
Asia stock fall continues
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.4 percent while Japan's Topix
index dropped 1 percent, its seventh day of
declines, as speculation increases that the Bank of Japan will opt to make
deeper cuts into negative rates rather than increase asset purchases at its meeting next
week. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2 percent higher at 6:15 a.m. ET, rising
from its lowest level in almost six weeks. S&P 500 futures had gained 0.3 percent.
ng up...There is a raft of U.S. economic data due today. At 8:30 a.m.
retail sales and PPI data for August are released. At the same time, we also
get weekly initial jobless claims numbers, with economists expecting 265,000,
or a small increase from last week's 259,000. Industrial production
data for August is due at 9:15 a.m. ET, with expectations for a drop of
0.2 percent.
It's
the eighth anniversary of the failure of Lehman Brothers. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average crashed 500 points that day, and Business Insider's Henry Blodget
summed it up by saying, "On the whole, given that one major brokerage firm
went bankrupt and another rushed to sell itself to avoid collapse, a 500-point
fall (-4.4%) isn't that bad."The Bank of England kept policy on hold. The BOE held its key interest rate at a record low 0.25%, as expected. Additionally, the central bank raised its third quarter growth forecast to up 0.3% from up 0.1%. The British pound is unchanged at 1.3240 following the decision.
The Swiss Central Bank says the franc is "still significantly overvalued." The central bank held its target range for three-month Libor at -1.25% to -0.25%, as expected. The Swiss franc is little changed near .9735 per dollar.
Australia's jobs report missed big. The Australian economy lost a seasonally adjusted 3,900 jobs (versus expectations for an increase of 15,000) in August as the unemployment rate dipped to 5.6%. The Australian dollar is higher by 0.1% at .7475 versus the dollar.
Vancouver is taxing empty homes. The 2% tax aimed at secondary homes left empty year-round is the latest effort to slow down Vancouver's out-of-control housing market, CBC News reports.
Tesla is investigating a fatal crash that might be linked to Autopilot. The Associated Press reports that a dash cam shows the car crashing into a slow-moving truck, and an official interviewed by CCTV said the Autopilot feature was engaged at the time of the accident.
Apple says it's sold out of the initial batch of iPhone 7 Plus. The phone is sold out in all colors, and while customers won't be able to get the phone Friday, when it is officially released, they will still be able to order it online, Reuters says.
Monsanto has agreed to sell itself to Bayer after months of haggling, in a $57 billion deal that would create an agricultural powerhouse. If regulators approve the tie-up, the German pharmaceutical and chemical conglomerate would inherit Monsanto’s market-leading position in seeds and crop genes. That would tilt Bayer heavily toward agriculture in a long-range bet on high-tech crops to sustain a growing global population. Because of the two companies’ far-flung operations and markets, the deal would require approval from about 30 regulatory agencies around the world. We report that behind the wave of multibillion-dollar mergers in the agriculture business is a moment of change in American farming, as farmers reconsider the use of biotech seeds due to their high prices amid the measly returns of the current farm economy.
Doctor’s Note
Hillary Clinton’s campaign on Wednesday released additional medical information about the Democratic presidential nominee, as the health and physical fitness of the two major-party candidates remained a central focus of the race. A two-page note by Mrs. Clinton’s doctor aimed to reassure voters she is in good overall health coming off a pneumonia diagnosis. Donald Trump’s campaign initially said it would publicly release more medical details, but instead Mr. Trump provided a written summary of a recent physical exam to TV doctor Mehmet Oz during a taping of his show, which is to air on Thursday. In other campaign news, newly leaked emails show former Secretary of State Colin Powell criticizing both major candidates, and we report that key swing states such as Nevada, North Carolina and Florida have seen some of the weakest income growth in the country since 2008.
In the Driver’s Seat
Uber has invited up to 1,000 Pittsburgh customers to experience its first U.S. real-world test of self-driving cars for regular passengers. On Monday, autonomous Ford Fusions owned by Uber, manned by a backup driver and an engineer in the front seat for safety, rolled slowly and cautiously through the city’s downtown as pedestrians curiously looked on. We report that during a demonstration ride, the robo-taxi obeyed speed limits, stayed in its lane and never shot through yellow lights, though it struggled with some obstacles and once jarringly hit the brakes. Uber said it chose Pittsburgh partly because of Carnegie Mellon University. The city also provides a good testing ground because it is notoriously difficult to drive through with steep hills and three rivers that make streets twist and turn unpredictably.
Happy (Real) New Year
Forget about January. September is the start of the real new year. While some religious traditions recognize the fall as a time of new beginnings, broadly this month marks a time of change in how we live, what we buy and what goals we set. Families put routines back in place, enforce bedtimes and pack lunches. Hollywood studios put forth their award contenders, the latest smartphones are unveiled and executives hunker down for the fourth quarter. The shift back to routines, experts say, makes desired life changes easier. People clear clutter out and vow to plan and cook healthy meals. As a result, gym memberships and grocery shopping go up. People also make changes to their looks, their careers and more: In 2015, 39% of couple said ‘I do’ in the fall.
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has told the
European Parliament that the UK won't have single-market access after Brexit if
it bars EU citizens from working in Britain. "Only those can have
unlimited access to the internal market who accept that there will be free
access for persons and goods," Juncker said. The Wall Street Journal (tiered subscription model)
Bayer's $66 billion acquisition of
Monsanto, the biggest all-cash buyout in history, could create an agricultural
giant big enough to influence the way the planet gets food. Antitrust
regulators are expected to scrutinize the deal, looking at whether it would
increase prices and reduce choices for seeds and chemicals essential to
farming.
Reuters (14 Sep.)
Central banks must accept
below-target inflation because of downward pressure from globalization and
technology or risk a debt trap resulting from overaggressive stimulus, says
Claudio Borio of the Bank for International Settlements. Central banks should
give policies time to work, he says.
Reuters (14 Sep.)
The $5.1 trillion foreign exchange
market has endured swings ahead of central banks' potential curtailing of loose
monetary policy. During the past month, the Mexican peso and the South African
rand have lost at least 6.5% of their value against the US dollar, while the
Australian dollar has lost 2.7%, the biggest decline among developed-economy
currencies.
Bloomberg (15 Sep.)
Warren: Next administration
should investigate — and possibly jail — Wall Street
bankers.
This bond market
selloff looks a lot like 'taper tantrum,' the sequel.Cheap burgers are giving the Bank of Japan a headache.
Why China's debt levels are all about property prices.
Holding gold is getting scary for this former bull.
Behind Bayer-Monsanto, an odd couple out to rule the world.
When did charts become so popular?
A Missouri Town Saved From Flood Faces Questions About Its Levee
U.S. to End Economic Sanctions Against Myanmar
Rodrigo Duterte’s Policy Shifts Confound U.S. Allies
Prisoners Stage Coordinated Strikes in Several States
Ford Rolls Out Business Services Unit, Plans Autonomous-Car Services
Long Bonds Waver in Volatile Trading
Stock markets around the world are mixed. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei (-1.3%) lagged while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.6%) led. In Europe, Spain's IBEX (+0.3%) paces the advance. S&P 500 futures are up 6.50 points at 2,126.75.
Oracle reports after markets close. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $0.60 a share on revenue of $8.70 billion, according to the Bloomberg consensus.
US economic data heavy. Empire Manufacturing,
initial jobless claims, Philly Fed, and retail sales are all due out at 8:30
a.m. ET before industrial production and business inventories are released at
9:15 a.m. ET and 10 a.m. The US 10-year yield is unchanged at 1.70%.
 |
|
|
Source:
Bloomberg, BI, WSJ, CFAI Fin. Newsbrief, Reuters, CleanTechnica
____________________________________________________________________________________
posted by Rich Barnett @ 10:08 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home